New talks with Taliban despite many question marks | Asia | '
The US hopes to conclude a peace agreement with the Taliban in Afghanistan within three months. Both sides want to meet on Saturday for another round of talks in Qatar's capital Doha (Product image from February). Last Tuesday US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said during his talks with the government in Kabul, "I hope we have reached a peace agreement with the Taliban before 1 September 2019. That is our mission."
The negotiator mandated for this mission is US diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad from Afghanistan. He has met with Taliban representatives in their Doha representation since last October six times. Several Western governments have also held talks with the Taliban to win them over to end the 18-year war. So far without success. So far, the US and the Taliban have only agreed on one point in principle: the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. But there was no progress on other crucial issues: what should the country's political system look like after the withdrawal of troops? What role would the incumbent Afghan government have?
US Secretary of State Pompeo reiterates alliance with Kabul
Schedule of troop withdrawal – and then?
"There can be some progress in understanding how to approach a deal on troop withdrawal," says Washington-based South Asia expert Michael Kugelmann. However, the only winners of such an agreement would be the Taliban, not the government in Kabul and not the US. "The US has always stressed that there can be no agreement without agreement on all the issues that are on the table," says Kugelman.
Some Taliban commanders claim that Washington has agreed to partial withdrawal of troops if the Taliban guarantees that Afghanistan will not be used as a terror base against the West. A spokesman for the Taliban representation in Doha, Sohail Shaheen, said: "As soon as there is a withdrawal schedule, the talks will automatically move to the next phase, with no need to await a complete withdrawal of troops and conversations can take place simultaneously. "
First drone deployment of Afghan government forces against the Taliban
Participation of the Government Ghani?
However, under the "next phase of talks", the Taliban could understand something different from the government in Kabul and its Western allies. What exactly will be the next steps of the Taliban after the agreement on a deduction date is unknown. "It may be that they then agree to talks with the government in Kabul, or they may call for the formation of an interim government in which they would participate," says security expert Wahid Muzhda from Kabul to ‘.
President Ashraf Ghani naturally rejects the idea of an interim government categorically, he wants to be confirmed in elections in September for another five years in office. If that succeeds, the Taliban may be forced to enter into talks with the Ghani government, some observers say.
On the other hand, a troop withdrawal would strengthen the position of the Taliban. According to various studies, they already control over half of the territory of the country. "The Taliban would then (after a withdrawal of troops) he was not forced to approach the Afghan government," says Wahid Muzhda.
German Afghanistan Commissioner Markus Potzel: Must seize opportunities
International initiatives – useful?
In recent months, Germany, Russia, China, the EU, Iran and Pakistan have all used their own channels to talk to the Taliban. For example, the German Federal Government Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Markus Potzel, met at least twice with Taliban representatives in Doha in May. "The opportunity for progress towards a more peaceful Afghanistan must not be missed," Potzel said in June. "If the friends of Afghanistan, including Germany, can jointly support it, then we should do that."
However, with all these uncoordinated international efforts so far, little presentable has come out. President Ghani has pointed this out to US Secretary of State Pompeo. According to its spokesman, Shah Hussain Martazawi, Ghani thanked the US government for its peace efforts and added, "It would be best for the allies of Afghanistan and their international partners to refrain from individual and scattered efforts."
Taliban delegation Moscow in May 2019
Moscow format – double-edged
In particular, Ghani regards the Moscow format with displeasure, where Taliban representatives have met with their political opponents twice, while Kabul's official representatives have remained outside. South Asia expert Kugelmann sees the Moscow meeting as a curse and blessing. "On the one hand, they represent the beginning of an overdue intra-Afghan dialogue. On the other hand, they are exacerbating Afghanistan's internal political tensions by excluding the government." The bottom line remains for President Ghani's former Advisor, Sadiq Patman, to realize that "even after all these meetings, nobody knows what the Taliban is up to."
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