Jair Bolsonaro: Messiah Descending | America - The latest news and information | '
Slippery videos, big sayings, lots of tweets and little real politics. In six turbulent months as president, Jair Messias Bolsonaro has lost a lot of political capital and disappointed even more expectations. The receipt: Only 32% of Brazilians are satisfied with his work, according to a study published on Thursday. Tendency: falling further.
The survey burglar is no wonder, said the political scientist Marco Aurélio Nogueira to the ‘. Because "in six months he has achieved nothing." His favorite project, the liberalization of the gun laws, failed so far in the resistance of the Congress. And even the fight against corruption, which he had announced full-bodied in the election campaign, did not progress.
In terms of corruption, Nogueira says, "he is even deeply in the mess himself." His own party PSL is said to have cheated on the campaign funding. And his son Flávio Bolsonaro is involved in dubious real estate transactions and is said to have employed petty employees in his cabinet. Including representatives from the underworld of Rio de Janeiro.
That would be half as bad if the economy would only run at last, according to the political scientist Oliver Stuenkel of the Fundação Getúlio Vargas opposite the ‘. But even there prevails disappointment. The central bank has just lowered its growth forecast for 2019 from two to 0.8%.
Stress with the Congress
The markets had put their hopes on the ultra-liberal economics minister Paulo Guedes. But he does not have the necessary political freedom, according to Stuenkel. This is mainly due to the president himself, who would prefer to avoid unpopular decisions such as pension cuts and privatizations of state-owned enterprises. "The markets have already noticed that Guedes has difficulty enforcing his plans," said Stuenkel. In particular, Guedes hurts that the congress ripped off his pension reform and made his own draft. The Congress shows more interest in pension reform than the President. The reform will probably not be thanked, but adopted in spite of the government, believes Stuenkel. And Nogueira adds: "Certainly Bolsonaro will not be able to write that as a victory on his flags."
Students in Brazil protest against Bolsonaro's planned cuts in education budget
Bolsonaro is not in a position to work constructively with Congress, believes Oliver Stuenkel. Therefore, the full-bodied announced by him "New Politics" (Nova Política) failed. So Bolsonaro wanted to govern without a firm base and seek the majorities for each new legislation. In the face of corruption scandals surrounding campaign and party financing, he had announced an end to guerilla and political felony.
But the congress did not play along. "It went from one to the other," said Stuenkel. Now the question arises, how far the president returns to the old policy to bring his plans through. "Although he is not capable of that." Because in addition to skill and experience, he simply lacks the desire to govern, believes the political scientist. "He continues to be a policy objector at heart. I doubt he really feels like governing in the traditional way. Because this is a difficult challenge, requires great knowledge of human nature and the interest to seek consensus. In my opinion, he does not have the competence. "
Dashing Cabinet
This also suffers the cohesion of the motley cabinet. The steady power struggle between anti-globalists, military and economic liberals makes Brazil's domestic and foreign policy currently completely unpredictable, so Stuenkel.
Recently, the "anti-globalists" gained the upper hand over Olavo de Carvalho, the guru of the new Brazilian right and thought leader for Bolsonaro and his sons. They warn against the "Marxist world conspiracy," which has long since infiltrated global institutions such as the United Nations and conceived "lies like climate change." For this, a number of highly decorated military had to take their hat, which favor a more sober governance. But because they were politically inexperienced, they became involved in unnecessary power struggles with Bolsonaro's close environment.
Also included is Minister of Justice Sergio Moro, the former star of the Cabinet. Moro had brought as a federal judge, the left-wing ex-president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Bolsonaro's archenemy and opponents behind bars. But after the publication of alleged conversations between Moro and the investigating prosecutors, the political future of the minister looks grim, believes Stuenkel.
Bolsonaro's Minister of Justice Moro is also criticized for illegally speaking with the prosecutors in the trial of former President Lula
Given the dissonance in the Cabinet Bolsonaro now in the occupation of important posts now increasingly on his closest family and friends. "It becomes clear that the president is loyal about everything, and even good people have to go if they do not publicly praise Bolsonaro," said Stuenkel. Especially the military had displeased the obligatory praise to Bolsonaro. "He prefers yes-sagers who radically support him."
Foreign policy isolated
In foreign policy, too, the discrepancies are increasing, as recently between Chancellor Angela Merkel and Bolsonaro on the question of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest. Just a few years ago, Germany and Brazil had worked together constructively. "Internationally, Brazil has become a very difficult partner in recent months," says Stuenkel. Bolsonaro's rabid nature is counterproductive. "He prefers confrontation and chaos, publicly projects enemy images, that's his style, and that's not going to change that much."
Large parts of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest had to give way to extended soy plantations
Especially by the exit from the climate debate and the migration pact one was isolated. "Brazil has always stood for reliability and predictability and relied on international cooperation – now Brazil is no longer playing a constructive role internationally."
So Bolsonaro remains only the escape to the front. Since he, like his idol Donald Trump, works better in campaign mode than in the daily routine of the government, he is already talking about his re-election in 2022. "Since he has nothing concrete to show, the talk about the 2022 election should keep the mobilization alive Trailers provide a fresh breeze, "says Nogueira.
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