Iran's asymmetric warfare | Middle East | '
The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman confessed that Iran would fend off any US attack, Abbas Mussawi said. Iran will resolutely face any aggression or threat from America, "quoted the semi-state Iranian news agency Tasnim.
The words followed only a few hours after US President Donald Trump stopped a military strike on Iran over last-minute fears. The Pentagon's expected 150 deaths would have been "disproportionate" in retaliation for shooting down an unmanned US drone Iran claims it to be, Trump wrote on Twitter.
Trump's reaction, as well as Iran's alleged launching of the drone or the escalation of the unsolved acts of sabotage against two merchant ships in the Gulf of Oman in mid-June, show that Iran is a serious enemy for the US – and for good reasons.
By pure numbers, a war against Tehran is unlikely to be a major challenge for Washington: measured by gross national product, the United States is 44 times richer than Iran, and its armaments investment is almost 70 times higher, with 15 times more aircraft like your potential opponent. In addition, Iran's air force is largely outdated: it is largely made up of outdated models from US, Chinese and Soviet production. The F-14 fighter aircraft, once delivered from the United States, date back to before the 1979 revolution. The comparison with the Navy is similarly depressing for Iran. The sanctions, which have been going on for 40 years, are having an effect.
Fall from the sky: A drone of the type RQ-4 Global Hawk, allegedly shot down by Iran
However, Iran has a strong arsenal of precision missiles, cruise missiles and armed drones. Quite essentially for her, a war against Iran should be a huge challenge for the US. In the event of war, Tehran would presumably not only use it against US military targets, but also against civilian targets in the region, such as shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Instead of the regular armed forces, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards could play an important role. "You can threaten the shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Caspian Sea with a rich arsenal of weapons such as submarines, intelligent torpedoes, remote or pre-installed mines, and anti-ship strategically positioned on the mainland, islands and ships Missiles, "writes military expert Theodore Karasik in a study for the Arab News newspaper. Remote-controlled boats, high-speed boats, underwater torpedoes and unmanned aerial weapons completed the arsenal. They could carry out attacks on tankers, shipping and offshore installations. The use of suicide commands could increase the efficiency of these attacks.
High precision weapons against civilian targets
It would be particularly dangerous to use these weapons as a "swarm", which could at least partially override the enemy defense with the help of cluster bombs. With continuously developed techniques of electronic warfare, Iran could also affect the enemy command and communication centers as well as the reconnaissance technique, according to Karasik.
Conventional Strength: US Aircraft Carrier USS Kearsarge and USS Lincoln in the Gulf, May 17, 2019
With such attacks, global oil transport could be halted, at least gradually, and for a period of time: one-fifth of global production is being shipped through the straits between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. If the Strait of Hormuz were no longer secure, not only the US, but many countries around the world would be affected. Accordingly, the pressure on Washington to end the war as quickly as possible – or not to start it.
Ground offensives – an incalculable risk
It is also unclear how to define a US victory over Iran: The US Air Force could easily destroy Iranian aircraft and warships. But that alone would not have won much – Iran would still have much of its missile arsenal and should continue to target soft targets. The US would be forced to invade. That is what the Iranian military has been preparing for a long time.
Iran relies on a so-called "mosaic-like defense structure" and a guerrilla war. They would "put an invasion force on its push toward Tehran at every single step numerous threats and make it impossible to occupy the country," says a study of RAND Corporation.
In addition, Iran is aware that a US soil offensive is not popular, emphasizes the commercial, also working for the US government consulting firm 5 Stones intelligence. For economic reasons, the Western states could no longer afford large military missions like those in Iraq or Afghanistan. States like Iran tried to weaken Western states economically through asymmetric warfare.
Sprawl in proxy wars
Beyond its borders, Iran could also use militia it supports as proxies who were officially fighting for its own cause. A well-known example is the use of Lebanese Hezbollah troops in Syria. 5 Stones intelligence claims that some al-Qaeda militias also have close ties with Iran and that there are "jihadist operations" that are "seemingly carried out by al-Qaida but are actually planned and financed by Iran."
US Foreign Secretary Mike Pompeo had spoken of links between Iran and al-Qaeda militias in May, but, according to a report in the magazine "Time", he won a resolute opposition from high-ranking officials in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Defense. Although there are links between Iran and al-Qaeda, the magazine cites a US official not mentioned by name. "But intelligence is not available, suggesting that they would be united in a major anti-American alliance."
Such public discussions are likely to suit Iran. For his strategies of asymmetric warfare also include ambiguous statements. The enemy should not know what to expect.
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