G20 in the sign of trade conflicts with the US | World | '
The host of this year's G20 summit, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, wants to make an effort on Friday and Saturday in Osaka not to let the meeting of the world's 20 most important industrial and emerging countries revolve around just one man. US President Donald Trump has again issued new threats against China, but also allies in the dispute over trade advantages before leaving for Japan. Nevertheless, the Japanese have put issues such as the fight against greenhouse gases, plastic waste in the sea, the aging of Western society and the future of work in the digital economy on the agenda. Progress has been made on these issues, a senior EU diplomat assures, but the work in the G20 bodies preparing the summit has certainly become more difficult due to the US national policy and the backlash of other countries.
Trade, commerce, trade
"One of the G20's most urgent tasks is to restore confidence in the multilateral trading system, and trade conflicts have begun to weigh heavily on prospects for economic growth," said Koij Tomita, the government's G20 representative. Tomita is one of the "Sherpas" negotiators preparing summit documents and making possible compromises. Tomita and many of his colleagues want to get heads of state and government to fundamentally initiate a reform of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The trade rules no longer meet the requirements, the bodies of the WTO would have to be revised. This is what many G20 countries agree on, which was decided at the last summit in Buenos Aires six months ago. However, when it comes to concrete steps, there is already a dispute between the US, China and Europe.
Golf for Team Spirit: Japan's Premier Abe (left) wants to convince US President Trump of partnership in the trade (archive)
Trump against the rest of the world
US President Donald Trump had accused nearly all states of the world on Wednesday, they would over-advantage the USA in the world trade and treat "unfairly". In return, Europeans, Chinese, Mexicans and others urge the US to abide by international rules. On the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Osaka, the two main contenders, US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping, want to gather for a summit. Trump threatened with further punitive tariffs on Chinese products before leaving for Osaka. "If I did not get a deal, I would add more tariffs if that does not work out," Trump told Fox Business Network. The tariffs could now be only 10 percent instead of the previously announced 25 percent, limited Trump. "I want a deal, it's possible, but if we can not do it, I'm very happy with the current situation," the president continued. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who is in China for preliminary talks, does not believe there is a breakthrough, but wants to get the Chinese, who have imposed tariffs on US goods, to return to the negotiating table.
Warnings of weak global economy
So far, goods worth about $ 200 billion have been affected by the trade dispute. At worst, $ 300 billion could be added. "The Chinese economy is going down the drain, they want to negotiate," said Donald Trump in the interview. "Last year, the US created a very difficult network of trade conflicts," says an EU diplomat in Osaka as he prepares for the summit. Not only China, but also Mexico, Canada, Vietnam, the EU and also hosts Japan are struggling with punitive tariffs and their threats from the White House. That led, last week's World Bank President David Malpass said, "a slowdown in corporate confidence, a slowdown in world trade, and sluggish investment in emerging and developing economies." The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde, warned that the imposed and yet threatened tariffs between the US and China could lead to a shrinkage of the global economy by 0.3 to 0.5 percent in the coming year.
Although US companies are also warning Donald Trump to change course, he remains determined. The American economy is still doing well and unemployment is extremely low. Stock market prices reach record levels. "Our model succeeds, others should emulate us," a senior White House official told the summit meeting.
The next conflict seems already preprogrammed. In the run-up to Osaka, US President Trump complained about alleged excessive tariffs that India wants to levy on goods from the United States. "Unacceptable" is the action of the Indians, tweeted Trump. He wants to talk about this in a four-way conversation with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Japan.
WTO is to be reformed
The T20, a global association of think tanks and economic researchers, has called on G20 participants to undertake a thorough reform of the world trade system. Whether this can succeed in Osaka with the USA and other actors is questionable. Donald Trump and not only he, after the motto "My land first". The European Union also calls for reforms and "rules-based international action". It has just concluded comprehensive free trade agreements with Canada and Japan, in contrast to the US. Negotiations with other world regions are underway. The EU also has the greatest interest in free trade, according to the EU Commission in a paper on the G20 summit. Almost half of the economic output (48.5%) is based on exports in the 28 member states. In the US, this share is only 12 percent.
Pragmatic approaches
The Japanese hosts also want to talk about the Chinese "belt and road" initiative, which aims to build infrastructure in Africa, Asia, and increasingly also in European states with Chinese financing and Chinese construction companies. The "Silk Road" model is increasingly criticized because the participating states are in debt and the local population usually benefits little. The Summit should also commit to taxing digital businesses, better regulation of data exchange and principles of the Internet of Things. All resolutions are not binding and voluntary commitments. The Japanese Sherpa Koji Tomita wants to focus on "practical things", with "practical" defined differently by different states.
British Prime Minister Theresa May and French President Emmanuel Macron again want to hold strong pledges for more climate protection and a limitation of global warming. This is likely to meet, above all, resistance from the United States, which have adopted from the UN Paris climate agreement. US President Trump believes climate change, if it exists at all, is not influenced by humans.
Well-organized and patient: Osaka police place mobile roadblocks in front of hotels.
Merkel meets Trump
US President Trump will hold about nine bilateral meetings in a day and a half, including with Russian President Vladimir Putin. With him Trump wants to talk about the conflict with Iran, otherwise the relationship with Moscow has cooled down considerably. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also receives an audience. The president wants him to read the Levites for buying Russian missile defense weapons. Chancellor Angela Merkel will also meet the President, as in previous G20 summits. What he will tell Merkel, Trump has already announced in the TV interview. It could not be said that Germany would throw billions of euros into Russia's gas business, but then would not spend any money on its defense. The Chancellor will again try to explain to the President the meaning of the widely criticized Nord Stream2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.
No big protests expected
Around 30,000 police officers will protect the summit participants in the south of the metropolis of Osaka. The schools are closed. The people of Osaka were called not to use their cars. Bars and shops should not open around big downtown hotels. With big demonstrations like in Buenos Aires or even in Hamburg in 2017 is not expected in Japan. Although Attac Japan and climate protectors had called for protests. So far, however, only a few hundred participants.
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