Erdogan's power is crumbling | Europe | '
Last Sunday's election slate is a watershed moment for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was so keen for success. Since taking office as Turkish Prime Minister in 2002, he and his ruling AKP party have won every major national election. Even from the local elections held at the end of May, the Islamic-conservative AKP still emerged nationwide as the strongest force.
But in the cities, voters run away. In addition to Istanbul, the AKP lost the cities of Antalya, Adana, Diyarbakir, Izmir and even the capital Ankara to the opposition. This shows that voters' favor is dwindling and Erdogan's power is crumbling. True, the AKP had left no stone unturned to at least hold the important metropolis on the Bosphorus. However, the repetition of the election in Istanbul, which Erdogan and his party aspired to and eventually achieved, proved to be a momentous mistake in retrospect. Because it only strengthened the power position of the opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu; He even achieved a better result than at the first poll.
The new mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, is considered the opposition's biggest hope.
Economic crisis: no end in sight
Decisive for the defeat of the AKP in numerous cities was the economic and monetary crisis, which since the summer of 2018 has burdened the population. The high unemployment and the turbo-inflation make the population hard to manage, at times there was an explosive rise in prices for staple foods, such as onions and other vegetables, which angered many Turks.
The ailing economy would urgently need to be rehabilitated, says Erdal Yalcin, Turkey expert at the University of Konstanz. "But that means: Unprofitable companies would have to go bankrupt, consumption would have to be shut down and unemployment would inevitably rise." Such conditions would hurt Erdogan, whose popularity is also explained by the economic boom since taking office. In addition, Ankara's difficult relationship with the US is weighing on the Turkish economy. Should Turkey actually buy the Russian S-400 missile defense system in July, it will most likely entail US economic sanctions.
In times of economic crisis, even loyal to the Turks do not tolerate the waste of taxpayers' money. That's what Imamoglu recognized. During the election campaign, he never missed an opportunity to point out the wasteful handling of funds from the Istanbul City Treasury. "From now on, the benefits for a few select foundations, confidants, and communities will end, and from now on, all of Istanbul will benefit," Imamoglu announced. The AKP maintains a "Patronage Network" that provides benefits and special arrangements for government-related business people and companies and receives their support.
The entanglements of politics and business would have reached unprecedented levels, according to Kristian Brakel of the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Istanbul. "With the acquisition of the Istanbul administration, the CHP reveals the extent to which money has been channeled into which channels." The change of power could also reveal illegal machinations of the predecessor administration, which go beyond nepotism – a loss of face for Erdogan.
Opposition stronger than ever
The Turks have long accepted that the Turkish president and the AKP are acting according to this system. Erdogan was "no alternative", was for a long time the most common justification of those Turks who support the Turkish president. But now there are alternatives. For the first time, the opposition has managed to ally itself against the over-powerful ruling AKP party.
The strongest opposition party CHP has joined forces with the ultra-nationalist Iyi Parti in an electoral coalition backed by the pro-Kurdish HDP. In Istanbul, for example, the HDP has not established a candidate; Immediately before the elections, detained former HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas called for the "election against fascism" – this secured Imamoglu victory in the first round. It is to be expected that the united opposition will successfully unite its forces in future elections. By contrast, the AKP coalition and the extreme right-wing MHP are far more fragile – above all because of a dispute about how to deal with the Kurdish minority in Turkey.
Early companions, soon competitors? Erdogan (left) and former President Abdullah Gül
Is the AKP splitting?
But even in its own ranks, the power base of the Turkish president seems to crumble. AKP heavyweights such as former President Abdullah Gül, former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and former Minister of Economic Affairs Ali Babacan speak unusually critically about the AKP leadership. Turkish media has been reporting for some time that these "renegades" may soon start a new party.
And the time has never been so cheap. For Erdogan's "Nimbus of Invincibility" belongs to history. So many challenges and failures experienced the spoiled success president never. But it is still too early to make any predictions as to whether Erdogan has actually passed the zenith of his power. He has brought under his control the most important institutions of the country – including the military, the judiciary and the media. The presidential system, introduced in 2018, gives Erdogan more political authority than any of its predecessors. His power may crumble, but for the past 17 years, Reccep Tayyip Erdogan has done everything to ensure it is secure.
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